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RCC Political Review 1.7
February 21, 2002

In this issue:

-	RCC Primer: Elections to the Verkhovna Rada
-	Opinion: Seize the decade!
-	RCC Guide: Ukrainian Political Internet Through Partisan Prisms
-	RCC Poll Review: February 21, 2002 (attached as .pdf)



RCC Primer: Elections to the Verkhovna Rada

Elections to the Parliament of Ukraine on March 31 will be held
according to the rules of a "mixed electoral system."  There are two
components to this mix: direct and proportional representation.

The Rada is comprised of 450 MPs.  Half of the Rada (225 MPs) will be
elected according to party and electoral bloc lists in a single,
nationwide electoral district (proportional representation).  The
other 225 will be elected from lists of candidates in 225 electoral
districts (direct representation).

Accordingly, voters will be presented with two ballots for the
elections to the Rada. On one ballot they will select from among a
list of individuals running for office from that district. On the
other ballot, voters will select from among a list of political
parties and electoral blocs.

I.   Proportional representation

This ballot will contain a list of 34 parties and blocs, plus a "none
of the above" option.
The ballot is identical across the nation, and lists the top five
candidates for each party and bloc.  Half of the parliament's seats
(225 MPs) will be filled according to the results of this ballot.

Only those parties or blocs that receive 4% or more of the total
popular vote qualify for parliamentary seats.  (Four percent
translates approximately into 1 million votes.)  Votes cast for
parties that fail to cross the 4% barrier do not count towards the
final distribution of Rada seats.  Rather, these votes go towards
distributing a "bonus" for the parties and blocs that score higher
than 4%.

The Bonus: An example

In 1998, the Communist Party won just under 25% percent of the total
popular vote.  At first glance, 25% of 225 equal 57 seats. After the
final tally however, the Communists were allotted 37% of the seats
(or 84 MPs).

This 27 seat bonus resulted from the fact that 22 parties failed to
cross the 4% barrier.  In total, the "below 4%" parties accounted for
26% of the total popular vote (6.8 million votes).  Those votes,
together with the "none of the above," do not count towards the final
distribution of seats.

Using the elections of 1998 as an example, the total popular vote was
distributed as follows (numbers are rounded off):

    - 66% for parties that crossed the 4% barrier (8 parties/blocs)
    - 26% for parties that failed to cross the 4% barrier (22 parties/blocs)
    - 8% against all parties and blocs (the "none of the above" option)

Thus, 66% became the base 100% for calculating each party's share of
all 225 seats.

Therefore, a simple formula for calculating the number of seats in
1998 was: [(% of popular vote) multiplied by 225] divided by 66.

In this way, the bonus is divided up proportionally by all of the
parties that cross the 4% barrier.

Thus, the size of the bonus is a very significant factor in the final
distribution of 225 proportional representation seats. Noteworthy is,
that this system takes a citizen's vote and gives it to a party or
electoral bloc for which the voter did not intend.


II.   Direct representation

Voters will also have to choose a specific candidate to directly
represent their district in parliament.  There are 225 districts.
Accordingly, 225 MPs will be elected by a simple majority.

This second ballot is comprised of an alphabetical list of candidates
vying for a parliamentary seat.  Brief biographies (year of birth,
employment, etc.) and party affiliation are specified on the ballot.

On average for these elections, 18 candidates are named on each
ballot.  In 1998, the former Soviet electoral procedure of crossing
off all of the candidates, except for one, was replaced by the far
simpler method of checking the box next to the name of one candidate.
Ballots completed in the old system are deemed spoiled.

Typically MPs elected according to single mandate constituencies join
their colleagues, elected according to party lists, to form
parliamentary factions.

Looking back to 1998, the Communists' core group of 84 MPs was joined
by an additional 40 MPs elected in single mandate constituencies.
The largest group of directly elected MPs to join a single faction
was 71.  The pro-presidential People's Democratic Party (NDP)
originally had 17 MPs elected according to its party list.  That
faction grew to 88 members within 5 months of the elections.

Under this current system, parties and blocs are forced to double
their efforts: on the national level, they work at promoting the
respective party or bloc.  On the local level, the parties and blocs
need to find suitable candidates to represent them in the
single-mandate constituencies.  Currently, the consensus among
Ukraine's political elite seems to be an eventual graduation to a
strictly proportional model (party / bloc lists) for parliamentary
elections.  That, however, is currently perceived as a threat to the
current administration, and the move has been postponed until future
elections.


* * *


Opinion: Seize the decade!

Ukrainian analysts and journalists agree that the March 31
parliamentary elections will be significant for two reasons.  First,
this parliament will sit until 2006, beyond the second (and final)
term of current president, Leonid Kuchma.  His post-presidential fate
will be decided, to a large extent, by the makeup of the next
parliament.  Secondly, the next president will likely emerge from
among the MPs elected this year. Given the administrative advantages
of the presidential chair, the next president is likely to serve two
five-year terms also, until 2014.

But these elections also have another special significance, one that
can turn into a convincing asset for the country's tattered
international image.  For the first time since independence, there is
an electoral alternative that can displace the Communists as the
single most popular political force in Ukrainian politics.

That bloc is Nasha Ukrayina, a coalition of center and right wing
parties, led by former Prime Minister Victor Yushchenko.

Opponents charge that the coalition is haphazard and situational.
They argue that it is comprised of disparate individuals with
incompatible ideologies.  The only thing that unites Nasha Ukrayina,
according to opponents, is the desire to ride into parliament on the
Yushchenko horse.

Evangelists claim that they stand united behind Yushchenko, and are
willing to make sacrifices for a greater agenda.  They believe that
his 16-month track record as PM has proven that a definite break with
the past is possible.

When the bloc was first announced, Nasha Ukrayina's poll numbers
placed it in first place.  The latest polls show Nasha Ukrayina
falling to the Communists' popularity level (consistently 19%).  One
recent poll even has the Communists beating Yushchenko.  About
one-quarter of voters are still undecided, but the fight for first
place is limited to these two contenders. The next closest party, the
United Social Democrats, trail the two by more than 10%.

Nasha Ukrayina is losing ground through a concerted campaign to
discredit the bloc and its leader, on most of the national TV outlets
and tabloids.  So far in the campaign, Yushchenko's public
appearances in the regions, including local media outlets, have been
sabotaged at least three times. Campaign 2002 has shown that
elections in Ukraine's young democracy are a sordid business.  These
may go down as the dirtiest elections ever.

Not surprisingly, the Communists and oligarchs are doing everything
possible to throw wrenches into the Yushchenko campaign machine.
What is alarming, however, is that they are joined by some
nationalists, pro-presidential politicians, and other center,
center-right political forces, that purport to be anti-Communist in
their convictions.

It is easy to see how Yushchenko represents a real threat to the
Communists and oligarchs.  But why the others?

Rather than join together and think about Ukraine's future in
strategic terms, the majority of the political elite is content with
focusing energies on internal strife.  Their main concerns are
short-term tactical victories for their respective parties, clans,
and fiefdoms.  And those concerns coincide with those of other
forces, bent on the nostalgia of seeing Ukraine part of some
resurrected brotherly union.

Indeed, there seems to be little concern for the fate of the country
beyond 2004 - the year of the next presidential elections -  among
that elite.

When the country awakes with a political hangover on April 1, 2002,
the worst joke possible will be that the Communists beat Nasha
Ukrayina for the parliamentary majority.  If that in fact happens, it
will unfortunately be a joke that Ukrainians played on themselves.


* * *


RCC Guide: Ukrainian Political Internet Through Partisan Prisms

Some months ago, the Editorial Board of RCC Political Review gave our
readers basic information on the Ukrainian political Internet, as
seen through available news and analysis resources. In this issue, we
return to this country's rich virtual political hunting grounds by
offering mini-reviews of 20 political parties and blocs contesting
the upcoming Parliament election.

One major drawback of most Ukrainian political party and electoral
bloc sites is the lack of quality English-language content. However,
some sites can be visited and their value as campaign tools measured
even without an understanding of Ukrainian. We invite you to read on
and surf away.

================================

Party name: Vyborchyi Bloc Yuliyi Tymoshenko (Electoral Bloc of
Yuliya Tymoshenko)

Top candidates: Yuliya Tymoshenko, Oleksander Turchynov, Anatoliy
Matviyenko, Levko Lukianenko, Stepan Khmara

URL: http://www.tymoshenko.com.ua/

Languages: Ukrainian, Russian, English

Features: "personal" web-site of Yulia Tymoshenko: biography, news,
interviews, forum, and photo album.

Summary: This site is part of an apparent personality-oriented image
strategy being pursued by Mrs. Tymoshenko's communications
specialists. It is done in an online newspaper style, replete with
regularly updated items with genuine news value, albeit emphasizing
issues, events and positions that are central to the bloc, which is
also known by its acronym BUT (pronounced "Beaut'"). This site is
heavily bannered on major Ukrainian Internet portals and news sites,
as well as specialty (politics-only) sites.

Party program: no

================================

Bloc: Vyborchyy bloc Demokratychna Partiya Ukrayiny - Partiya
"Demokratychnyy Soyuz" (Democratic Union)

Top candidates: Volodymyr Horbulin, Oleh Rafalskiy, Hetman Ivan
Bilas, Vyacheslav Pikhovshek

URL: http://www.demunion.kiev.ua

Languages: Ukrainian (some items in Russian)

Features: news, press-commentaries, discussion club, chat, contacts
to regional offices.

Summary: The site focuses on the party's party list, but makes no
mention of some of its more influential and financially secure
individuals, such as Oleksander Volkov and Volodymyr Satsiuk (who are
not on the party list and are running in single-mandate
constituencies instead). There is an almost total absence of graphics
that would catch a reader's eye, and press-oriented content is dry
and uninteresting.

Party program: yes

================================

Bloc name: Vseukrayinske politychne obyednannia "Zhinky za maibutnie"
   (Women for the Future)

Top five candidates: Valentyna Dovzhenko, Mariya Orlyk, Nataliya
Katerynchuk, Valentyna Svatyeva, Halyna Ponomariova

URL: http://www.woman.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian

Features: news, press commentary, interviews, party anthem

Summary: The site focuses on this party's priorities and plans (read
ambitions). The entry page strikes many viewers with its faded image
of a mother-and-child seeping through a stark blue and yellow
forefront. However further exploration shows the futility of creative
design when original content is lacking. The party program is boring,
and conservative in a neo-Soviet sense. The writing style is also
very bureaucratic.

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: Komunistychna Partiya Ukrayiny (Communist Party of Ukraine)

Top five candidates: Petro Symonenko, Omelian Parubok, Ivan
Herasimov, Borys Oliynyk, Valeriya Zaklunna-Myronenko

URL: http://www.kpu.kiev.ua

Languages: Russian

Features: press-commentaries, candidate lists, official documents,
upcoming events, chat, photo album.

Summary:  The site is short on everything except for CPU-related
information. This site has been difficult to access at times, but
this is not, presumably, due to extremely heavy traffic.

Party program: yes

================================

Bloc name: Vyborchiy bloc "Komanda Ozymoho Pokolinnia"
(The Winter Generation Team, a.k.a "Generation X" in Western publications)

Top five candidates: Valeriy Khoroshkovskyy, Inna Bohoslovska, Mykola
Sytnyk (Veresen), Ostap Protsyk, Valeriy Voshchevskyy.

URL: http://www.zbirna.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian (with some texts in Russian)

Features: news, press commentary, party list and Manifesto.

Summary: The site highlights publications and news coverage of this
"under-40 pro-business progressive" group's activities. KOP is
positioning itself as a genuine (relatively youthful) alternative to
the heavyweights in the race, be they centrist or center-right in
their orientation. Colors are used effectively to bring across the
idea that KOP's candidates are like winter wheat that will give a
good early harvest. Another site strength is the presence of
intelligently written materials by and about KOP members, who include
popular TV personalities and individuals selected via an "open
application" process from throughout Ukraine. The site's main
weakness is that its owners do not appear to have a nationwide base
of support that can be enhanced through the site and other media
strategies and tools.

Party program: yes

================================

Bloc name: Bloc Viktora Yushchenka "Nasha Ukrayina" (Our Ukraine)

Leader: Viktor Yushchenko

URL: http://www.razom.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian

Features: news, press commentary, polling data and analysis, search
engine, forum, "Ask Viktor Yushchenko" Q&A Online.

Summary: Besides bloc-related info, this portal-style site provides
news and commentary about the bloc. It also features polls and
forums, and has substantial search and navigation capabilities. A
distinct strength is the prominence of sources for material posted to
the site, which enhances both the site's and owners' credibility.
Razom is also widely advertised (though not nearly as widely as the
Tymoshenko site) through banners, and the site includes downloadable
banners for those interested in "spreading the word" about Viktor
Yushchenko and Our Ukraine. The "Ask Viktor Yushchenko" Q&A Online
element also adds value to the site experience, although it is not
updated frequently.  Also, see http://www.yuschenko.com site for an
unofficial site, that purports to be genuinely pro-Yushchenko, but
sneaks in pot-shots at the former PM, and spreads good news about his
opponents, including SDPU(o).

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: "Partiya Zelenykh Ukrayiny" (Green Party)

Top five candidates: Vitaliy Kononov, Oleh Shevchuk, Vasyl
Khmelnytskyy, Serhiy Kurykin, Yuriy Samoylenko

URL: http://www.greenparty.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian, Russian, English

Features: news, photo album, forum, on-line booklet ordering, polls,
"Green Internet" project: (email account, chat), background radiation
monitor and (!) weather forecast.

Summary: This all-green portal-style site contains extensive links to
international environmental protection-oriented sites, as well as
Ukrainian political news and press commentary. The site features a
"Green Internet" project, providing email and other on-line services
to those interested. It is well designed, and clearly showcases the
Greens' strategy of avoiding "dirty politics" by highlighting
"apolitical" environmental protection issues and the party's
achievements in parliament and government thereon. To would-be-voters
who are regular Internet users but who do not otherwise follow the
Greens' voting record in Parliament, this site is a powerful argument
in support of casting a "green ballot" for the site owners on
Election Day.

Party program: yes

================================

Bloc name: Vyborchyy bloc "Za yedynu Ukrayinu" - "Partiya regioniv"
(Party of Regions)

Leading Lights:  Mykola Azarov, Volodymyr Semynozhenko, Andriy
Klyuyev, Volodymyr Rybak, Hennadiy Samofalov.

URL: http://www.partyofregions.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian, Russian, English

Features: news, poll, contact phone numbers to all the candidates.

Summary: This site has good color composition but the content is
somewhat bland and bureaucratic. Although the site claims to be
tri-lingual, only the Ukrainian section works at this time. The site
is quite similar to the Women for the Future site reviewed above in
terms of being a valiant attempt to package old products in new
boxes. It is simply not interesting.

Party program: yes

================================

Bloc name: Vyborchyy bloc "Za yedynu Ukrayinu" -
"Narodno-demokratychna partiya" (People Democratic Party)

Top candidates: Valeriy Pustovoytenko, Anatoliy Tolstoukhov, Oleksandr Karpov

URL: http://www.ndp.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian, English

Features: general information, email contacts.

Summary: A dreadfully boring site for those seeking campaign
propaganda and the like, this site could be of interest to political
science students looking for primary source material on Ukraine's
consummate centrist party of power. For those who need additional
information about this party, there is a contact email address. The
English-langauge version is currently under construction.

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: "Narodniy Rukh Ukrayiny za Yednist" (Popular Movement of
Ukraine for Unity)

Leader: Bohdan Boyko

URL: http://www.rukh.org

Languages: Unable to ascertain

Features: The site, affiliated with a splinter faction of the
original Rukh, a once-influential national democratic party, is
currently closed due to technical difficulties, with no indication of
when it may reappear on-line. Presumably the site's owners will
provide interesting content if and when they do return to the
Internet.

Party program: no

================================

Party name: SDPU(o) Social-Democratic Party of Ukraine (United)

Top five candidates: Viktor Medvedchuk, Oleksander Zinchenko, Valeriy
Yevdokymov, Vasyl Kremen, Ihor Pluzhnykov

URL: http://www.sdpuo.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian, Russian, English

Features: news, recent elections info, press commentary, discussion
club (forums, polls), search engine, contacts, link to the "Nasha
Hazeta+" newspaper, on-line "One Million Red Roses" contest.

Summary: Comprehensive on-line political news coverage, news
analysis, as well as a range of links on
all-you-needed-to-know-about-the-party info. The site features a
Discussion Club section that includes polls and an allegedly
uncensored forum. It offers helpful search and navigation functions.
Links to ideologically related parties in foreign countries are
provided as well. The on-line contest that offers a 17 inch monitor
as a prize is a definite sign of innovation in the Ukrainian
political Internet. The party also uses the site as an important
communications vehicle for its members of the regions.  Hleb
Pavlovskiy's people, from the Moscow-based Fund for Effective
Politics, manage the site.  Their other Internet projects include
http://www.ukraine.ru, http://www.strana.ru and other sources of
disinformation, aimed at discrediting Medevdchuk's arch-enemy and
rival - Victor Yushchenko.  Medvedchuk's people are using the site to
prop up his image, and position him as a contender for the next
presidential elections.

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: Trudova Ukrayina (Labor Ukraine)

Leader:: Serhiy Tyhypko

URL: www.trud.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian, Russian

Features: news, link to party publications, forum, legal
consultations on issues related to the state language.

Summary: This site is the Internet calling card of one of Ukraine's
premier oligarch-associated parties. Nominally led by former Vice
Prime Minister Serhiy Tyhypko, Labor Ukraine blends center-left
economic policies with a marked pro-Moscow geopolitical orientation.
"To Europe with Russia!" is one of their battle cries during these
elections. The site does not reflect the party's actions and voting
record. It is professionally designed and provides the gamut of basic
information to be expected from political party sites. Once, the site
provided a downloadable copy of a report by the U.S. based Kroll
detective agency that sets out to prove the falsity of conversations
taped in high official's offices by a former Security Service of
Ukraine officer, in which these officials discuss issues of a
potentially criminal nature. After the recordings were ascertained to
be authentic by a top former FBI agent, the Kroll report mysteriously
disappeared from prominence on the site.  The accent on Tyhypko
content also suggests that the successful banker from Dnipropetrovsk
is positioning himself, or being positioned, for the next
persidentials.

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: Sotsialistychna Partiya Ukrayiny (Socialist Party of Ukraine)

Top five candidates: Olexandr Moroz, Ivan Bokiy, Yuriy Lutsenko,
Valentyna Semeniuk, Ivan Spodarenko.

URL: http://www.socinfo.kiev.ua/socinfo.htm

Languages: Ukrainian

Features: news, commentaries, interviews, hot line, video section.

Summary: The Socialist Party site offers coverage of party activities
along with detailed information on each of the top five candidates.
One innovative feature is a Real Media format video titled "In
Commemoration of Heorhiy Gongadze."  Moroz also has a personal site,
http://www.moroz.com.ua.  Turn up your speakers before visiting this
one!

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: Ukrayinska Natsionalna Asambleya UNA-UNSO (Ukrainian
National Assembly - Ukrainian National-Self Defense Organization)

Top five candidates: Andriy Shkil, Mykola Karpiuk, Oleh Marchuk,
Ruslan Zaychenko, Serhiy Chumak

URL: http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Lobby/5331/index1.htm/

Languages: Ukrainian, English, German, Spanish, Russian

Features: news, press-center, media commentary, discussion club,
photo album, art-page, contacts, links on Ukrainian history and
geo-political strategy.

Summary: The web-site info is permeated by UNA-UNSO right wing
ideology. News coverage is utterly subjective. Besides political
information, the page contains links to Ukrainian history,
geo-politics and culture pages. Visitors may also subscribe to
on-line UNA newsletters.  Many of the party's leading lights have not
been able to access their own site over the past eleven months, as
they are in jail awaiting trial for incitement to riot in
demonstrations that took place in March 2001.

Party program: yes

================================

Bloc name: Vyborchyy bloc politychnykh partiy "Bloc Nataliyi
Vitrenko" (Electoral Bloc of Political Parties of Nataliya Vitrenko)

Leader: Nataliya Vitrenko

URL: http://www.vitrenko.org

Languages: Russian

Features: press-center, photo and video albums, link to the newspaper
of the Party "Dosvitni Vohni", Internet conferences.

Summary:  If the public Internet had existed some 30 years ago,
probably all Soviet sites would have been akin to the website of
Ukraine's arguably most (in)-famous politician. The total absence of
adverts is a definite plus. Clicking on the Leader's portrait will
direct you to a strictly laid out page full of paeans to Alexander
Lukashenko and venom aimed at the United States, IMF, NATO and the
Socialist leader Oleksander Moroz. Ms. Vitrenko needs a face-lift,
however, as the years of Marxist struggle are beginning to tell, and
one would have thought that the web-site designers had a pirated copy
of Photoshop lying around.

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: "Nova Generatsiya Ukrayiny" (New Generation of Ukraine)

Leader: Yuriy Miroshnichenko

URL: http://www.newgeneration.kiev.ua

Languages: Ukrainian

Features: news, commentaries, link to the newspaper of the Party
"Nova Generatsia", email contacts.

Summary: The site lacks new ideas in terms of web-design and
presentation. To draw attention to the party's youthful image and
ideology, the site has, in addition to standard political news and
analysis fare, a Top 20 music listing. This novelty is more likely to
help party members find jobs as DJs, not MPs in the new Parliament.

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: Ukrayinska Partiya "Yednist" (Unity)

Leader: Oleksandr Omelchenko

URL: http://www.yednist.kiev.ua

Languages: Ukrainian

Features: news, media commentary (old version).

Summary: This site is temporarily "Under Reconstruction." Party
Leader and mayor of Kyiv Omelchenko is known for high volume and
speedy public works and reconstruction projects in the center of the
capital, so there is every likelihood that this site will be up and
running in know time at all as well˝

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: Vseukrayinska Partiya "Nova Syla" (New Force)

Leader: Mykola Kushnirov

URL: http://www.novasyla.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian

Features: news, commentaries, email contacts, questionnaire.

Summary: Party-related info, newsletter subscription, nothing
outstanding. The party is not a real player in the coming Parliament
election, however the site contains a pleasant picture gallery and a
somewhat startling front page (startlingly confused design-wise).

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: "Yedyna Rodyna" (Unified Family)

Top candidates: Oleksander Rzhavskyy, Oleksander Karelin

URL: http://www.edina-rodina.org

Languages: Ukrainian, English, Russian.

Features: press commentary, forum, polls, questionnaires, photo
album, party anthem.

Summary:  A very standard site. All the basic information about this
party and its leader is present. The current online poll did not work
consistently when tested from a variety of locations, which leads one
to wonder whether the content and "responses" are 100 percent
accurate.

Party program: yes

================================

Party name: "Yabluko" (The Apple)

Top five candidates: Viktor Chayka, Mykhailo Brodskiy, Rostyslav
Mokhovykov, Oleksiy Danilov, Dmytro Vydrin.

URL: http://www.yabluko.org.ua

Languages: Ukrainian

Features: news, commentary, polls, forum (email, SMS, phone
contacts), links to the party newspaper "Yabluko" ("Apple"), photo
archive.

Summary: The site provides an extensive description of the "Apple's"
activities, as well as constantly updated news coverage, analyses,
and commentary focusing on media issues. The web-page contains
on-line polls and subscriptions, also offering email and SMS
contacts. Apples are everywhere, and the party is in some ways a
curvy copy of its older, and less populist, Russian cousin. All
material is presented in a direct fashion, and the light scent of
scandal draws readers' attention. This site pulls very few punches,
which makes for good reading.

Party program: yes



* * *



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