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["Max Pyziur" <pyz@brama.com>]

fyi,

MP
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---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Ukraine Insider: A New Election
From:    "Lozowy" <lozowy@voliacable.com>
Date:    Tue, February 28, 2006 6:21 am
To:      pyz@brama.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE UKRAINE INSIDER - is distributed via the Internet free of charge to
all interested parties as a source of in-depth information on political
events in Ukraine, including behind-the-scenes coverage of significant
current issues, the positions of policy-makers, tactics and strategy
information on Ukraine's ongoing struggle toward a free and democratic
society.

THE UKRAINE INSIDER
Vol. 6, No. 1
February 28, 2006

ITEM A.: A COMPLETELY NEW ELECTION

With general elections less than four weeks away, Ukraine is headed toward
wide-ranging changes in the political landscape.

First and foremost, the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, will undergo
a radical transformation. Earlier Radas were composed largely of the
"boloto," or "mud" - People's Deputies who drifted between factions, often
receiving large sums of money for switching sides. Previously, half of the
Rada's MPs were elected in single-mandate districts and many from the
other half, elected on party lists, did not feel particularly tied to the
political party which got them elected.

Now, the March 26 elections are based on a pure proportional, or party
list, system. New rules preclude changing factions after the elections, so
the new parliament will be much more rigid.

The major polling services are pretty uniform in their forecasts, showing
six groups as definitely passing the 3 percent threshold:
		Party of Regions: 25-30%
		Our Ukraine: 19-22%
		Yulia Tymoshenko Block: 15-17%
		Socialist Party: 6-8%
		Communist Party: 6-7%
		Lytvyn Block: 5-6%
		Pora-PRP: 2-3%

The pre-election campaign has produced few surprises. The Party of Regions
is conducting a hard-hitting campaign. Their list is heavily dominated by
people linked directly to Renat Akhmetov, the real force behind the party
and head of Ukraine's most powerful industrial-financial group, or clan.
Akhmetov, who previously avoided the limelight, recently staged a
prominent appearance on his home turf in Donetsk, fueling rumors that he
is preparing to go public and oust Viktor Yanukovych, Yushchenko's
unsuccessful rival in 2004. Yanukovych had been the political face for the
Donetsk clan for years, but his failure in 2004 was reportedly very
upsetting to his boss, Akhmetov.

Yushchenko's "Our Ukraine" coalition is headed by current Prime Minister
Yuriy Yekhanurov, who, besides his loyalty to Yushchenko has little to
recommend him. Yekhanurov is a political lightweight and has been damaged
by the recent gas spat with Russia. The person pulling Our Ukraine's
strings is Roman Bessmertny, one of the people closest to Yushchenko. Yet
Our Ukraine's TV ads have been muddled and backward-looking, attempting to
capitalize on the Orange Revolution at a time when disenchantment among
voters is high.

The firebrand Yulia Tymoshenko, Yushchenko's former partner in the Orange
Revolution and Prime Minister until Yushchenko fired her on September 8,
2005, initially hesitated in confronting the Our Ukraine coalition
directly. These days, however, Tymoshenko sarcastically refers to her
former partners in Our Ukraine as "my dear friends" when she mentions
Bessmertny's shenanigans in conducting "black PR" in the form of leaflets
accusing her of "betraying Ukraine" after her parliamentary faction voted
on January 10, 2006 to help oust Yekhanurov.

Tymoshenko's political party, "Batkivshchyna" ("Fatherland"), is 100% a
one-woman show. According to MPs on her list, she maintained the list of
candidates to parliament in alphabetical order until all her "ducks" were
in a row. Specifically, Tymoshenko co-opted at least a dozen Kuchma-era
and medium level oligarchs by selling places for about 5 million USD.
Unlike other coalitions, which at least pretend to vote through party
lists at party congresses, Tymoshenko personally established the pecking
order in what is truly "her list." Since the Yulia Tymoshenko Block is not
running paid TV advertisements, she even stands to make some money during
this election campaign.

The once powerful Social Democratic Party headed by Viktor Medvedchuk is
at the core of a coalition named "Ne Tak" - an entitled denouncement of
Yushchenko's principal slogan in the 2004 presidential campaign: "Tak!" or
"Yes." But the Ne Tak crowd is polling at only 1.5%. Their only hope is to
pull their usual trick of massively buying up electoral and election
committees' support in one or several regions.

Another group set to go down in their rowboat is the Ukrainian People's
Party headed by Yuriy Kostenko. Kostenko drifted away from Yushchenko
because of his inability to hit it off with practically anyone among the
Our Ukraine crowd.

Of all the major players, Our Ukraine has led the underperformer crowd.
Yushchenko's rule has come across as weak and detached. During the recent
gas crisis with Russia, Yushchenko kept largely silent. The collapse last
year of the high-profile case against Borys Kolesnikov (See The Ukraine
Insider, Vol. 5, No. 1 from March 8, 2005), a key figure in Akhmetov's
clan, dashed hopes among voters that Yushchenko's slogan "Send the bandits
to prison!" would be realized.

Today many voters remain undecided, by some counts as many as 20 percent
of the electorate. Thus the big surprise of the March 2006 elections will
be delivered by the protest vote. Disenchantment with a series of crises
badly handled and squabbling within the former Orange coalition will boost
support for blocks seen as oppositionist, primarily Tymoshenko's, the
Socialist Party, the radical pro-Russian politician and former Kuchma
protege Natalia Vitrenko and Pora-PRP (which includes Viktor Pynzenyk's
Party of Reforms and Order).

Pora, largely composed of youth who spearheaded the Orange Revolution, has
put former heavyweight boxer Vitaly Klichko first in its party list, is
running a forceful TV ad campaign and has thousands of active volunteers
combing the larger cities.

Yet the undisputed leader is the Party of Regions. Their neck of the woods
in eastern Ukraine is a microcosm of the former Soviet Union, with
subservient media, a completely controlled local economy and regular
handouts buying up voter sympathy.

Many Westerners will view Region's first place finish on March 26 as a
victory, although the combined votes for Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko will
be greater.

Thus the million dollar question is who will form the government after the
elections.

[Inthefollowingissue:anotsograndcoalition]

(c) Ivan Lozowy

Correspondence should be addressed via the Internet to: lozowy@gmail.com